reviews · whole group · offline + online
The Premortem.folder
Optimism mutes good judgment. Assume it already failed, write how, and give each cause a signal you'd catch in time. Naming it is safe once the failure is certain.
// cause & signal cards · 25 min · print & run · tool pack · no projector, no account
A review that runs backwards from a future failure, built as a complete workshop folder: a timed run sheet, printable cards, and a set-the-scene → write-silently → share & post → signal → assign mechanic that turns polite-unsaid risks into causes with early-warning signals and one preventive action with an owner and a by-when.
The props are poker-spec print cards (63.5 × 88.9 mm, bleed and cut guides included) — a failure-story card, a root-cause card, an early-warning-signal card, a preventive-action card, an owner-and-by-when card, a blank card and branded backs. Nothing needs a projector, and nothing needs an account to download.
the run sheet
// this is the guide file, word for word — read it here, run from it here. the .md at the bottom of the page is the same text, offline.
Folder: `the-premortem` · Category: reviews · 4–12 people · 25 min · offline + online · print props · tool pack License: CC BY 4.0
A 25-minute, 4–12 person review that runs backwards from a future failure. Before you launch (or after a miss), the team assumes the project has already failed and writes the story of how — which surfaces the risks people were too polite to raise while it still felt optimistic. A premortem is a retrospective pointed at the future.
Objectives
By the end of the activity, participants will have:
- Written, silently, the story of how this plan failed — pulling out the risks nobody was polite enough to raise while the mood was optimistic.
- Clustered the root causes and given each of the top three an early-warning signal they'd actually notice in time.
- Committed one or two preventive actions with a named owner and a by-when — risks named while they're still cheap to fix.
When to use this activity
- A significant plan is about to start and the kickoff feels great — which is exactly when nobody says the quiet part.
- A launch or milestone is close enough that a named risk is still cheap to defuse.
- Someone has gone quiet in every review of this plan; a premortem gives silence a safe way to speak.
Why running backwards works
Optimism mutes good judgment. In a healthy kickoff nobody wants to name the thing that could sink it. By declaring the failure already certain, the premortem makes naming it safe and even required — and turns hindsight into foresight while there's still time to act.
Setup
Space: one shared board with three columns — Root causes · Early-warning signals · Preventive actions. Online, the same three columns live on a shared board.
Materials per person: sticky notes and a pen — the failure story and its causes, written silently.
Materials for the room: the card faces from `the-premortem-prop-cards.pdf` — a failure-story card, a root-cause card, an early-warning-signal card, a preventive-action card, an owner-and-by-when card, a blank.
Grouping: 4–12 people who are part of a plan that hasn't happened yet (or a review of one that just did).
Roles: everyone writes before anyone speaks; you declare the failure certain, run the round-robin, and refuse any cause that ends without a signal.
Optional: put `the-premortem-activity-poster.pdf` on the wall so the two rules — "everyone writes before anyone speaks" and "every cause needs a signal" — stay visible. No projector, no account, no online form.
How to run it
| Time | Phase | What you do |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 | Set the scene | Say it plainly: "It's three months from now. The project failed. Everyone write the story of how it happened." Make the failure certain, not hypothetical. |
| 3–10 | Write the failure | Everyone writes the failure story and its causes silently. No talking — this kills anchoring on the loudest voice. |
| 10–16 | Share & post | Round-robin: each person reads one cause and posts it under Root causes. Cluster duplicates as you go. |
| 16–21 | Signal it | For the top three causes, name an early-warning signal — the thing you'd see two months out that tells you this failure is underway. |
| 21–25 | Assign | For the top cause (or two), agree one preventive action with an owner and a by-when. A cause with no signal and no action is just a worry. |
The card
The three columns are the three card faces: a root cause posted under the first earns an early-warning signal on the second and, for the top one or two, a preventive action with an owner and a by-when on the third. Keep the failure-story card's opening line ("it's three months from now") as the frame the whole board hangs on.
Failure modes
- The causes are all safe and obvious. Nobody named the real one. Ask directly: "if this fails and you'd get blamed — what would you say it was?" Then write that.
- Every cause has a signal but no owner. Signals without watchers don't fire. Assign a name to each of the top three before anyone leaves.
- It turns into a complaint session about another team. Reframe to what this team can act on; park the rest as a named dependency with an owner who will raise it elsewhere.
Variations
- After an actual miss: run it forward instead — the failure already happened; the exercise becomes a straight retro with better honesty.
- Two teams, one plan: each runs it separately, then compare; the differences are where the handoffs are.
- Standing risk review: re-run monthly on the same plan; the signals that keep reappearing are the real ones.
Facilitation notes
- Say the premise as fact, not hypothesis — "it failed" gives people permission; "what if it failed" asks for one.
- Reward the person who names the uncomfortable risk first; that's the behavior the whole format exists to buy.
Put it on the wall
Print `the-premortem-activity-poster.pdf` (A3) to hold the premise, the three columns and the two rules on one wall while you run it.
Props in this folder
- `the-premortem-prop-cards.pdf` — poker-spec print sheet (63.5 × 88.9 mm, bleed and cut guides): failure-story, root-cause, early-warning-signal, preventive-action and owner-and-by-when cards, blanks, branded backs
- `the-premortem-run-sheet.pdf` — the print edition: this run sheet + the debrief, bound as one A4 document with bookmarks (`-Letter.pdf` is US Letter)
- `the-premortem-activity-poster.pdf` — the whole review on one A3 wall sheet
- `the-premortem-guide.md` · `-debrief.md` · `-start-here.md` — the facilitator guide, the debrief, the one-page start here
- `the-premortem-license.md` — what you may do, how to rebrand, what shipped when
- `SKILL.md` · `the-premortem.zip` — the machine-readable manifest, and the whole folder in one download
Agent version
Every file in this folder has a stable public URL — an AI agent can fetch the cards, the debrief and this run sheet with three curl commands (see `SKILL.md`). The paper version needs nothing but a three-column board, sticky notes and a pen each.
the debrief sheet
// the debrief questions, in full — the .md version prints on one page for the room.
A premortem earns its keep only when a worry becomes a cause, the cause gets a signal, and the signal gets a watcher. Three words on a board is a list; an owner and a by-when is protection. Use with `the-premortem-guide.md`. The assign round at minute 21 is the compressed version; this sheet is the full one.
How to run this debrief
- Point at the board while you talk — causes, signals and actions are already in front of the team; the debrief pressure-tests them, it doesn't re-collect them.
- Push every signal twice: would you truly notice it two months out, and who watches it? Unwatched signals are decoration.
- Close on one thing done differently this week, with a name and a date against it.
Read the board
- Which cause made the most people nod. The one everyone thought but nobody had said — that's what the format was for.
- Which causes are the same cause in different clothes. Cluster them before you act; five notes about "the handoff" is one cause with five symptoms.
- Whose cause is missing. If someone went quiet mid-round, their risk is the one you didn't write down. Go get it.
The four debrief questions
- For the cause you picked first: what is the early-warning signal, and would you actually notice it two months out — or only in hindsight?
- Who owns the signal, how often do they look, and what happens when they see it?
- Is the preventive action a real change, or a meeting to discuss the change?
- If this cause fires anyway, what's the fallback — or is "we'll deal with it then" the honest answer?
Failure modes of the debrief
| Failure mode | Why it happens | The rescue |
|---|---|---|
| The causes are all safe | Nobody named the real one | Ask directly: "if this fails and you'd get blamed — what would you say it was?" |
| Signals with no watchers | Everyone agreed, nobody volunteered | Assign a name to each of the top three before anyone leaves. |
| It becomes a complaint session | The real risk sits with another team | Park it as a named dependency with an owner who will raise it elsewhere. |
| The action is a meeting | Real change feels expensive | Push for the cheapest concrete move that fits this week. |
Who is The Premortem for?
Any team about to launch a plan they're too optimistic to critique, or reviewing something that just missed. It needs 4–12 people and 25 minutes; it runs on a shared board online.
What does it produce?
A clustered list of the top root causes, each with an early-warning signal you'd notice in time, and one or two preventive actions with a named owner and a by-when. No pre/post measure; the artifact is that board.
Can my AI agent use this folder?
Yes. Every folder ships a SKILL.md skill file: frontmatter for matching plus runnable prep commands — fetch the cards, pull the debrief. The three-step workflow (discover, install, run) lives on the skills page, every folder ships a one-command zip bundle, and the machine index is skills.json.
Is it really free?
Yes — CC BY 4.0, no account, no email wall inside a folder. Download it, run it, copy it, rebrand it for your own workshop. Attribution keeps everything free.
make it yours
This premortem needs no online form and no account — three columns, cards, sticky notes. The card prompts are the one file to change: rename failure story / root cause / early-warning signal / preventive action to how your team already talks about risk, and reprint at poker spec; the write-silently-first rule stays. The license file covers the rest — keep the CC BY attribution line and it stays free to use, sell, and redistribute.
Files in this folder
All files are free under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: “The Premortem · WorkshopSkill · CC BY 4.0.”