# Assumption Audit — Facilitator Guide

> Folder: `assumption-audit` · Category: creativity · 3–8 people · 20 min · offline + online · print props · tool pack
> License: CC BY 4.0

A plan only works if a list of things nobody wrote down are true. The team surfaces those hidden assumptions, tags each one Evidence / To-verify / Fragile-if-false, and ranks them by how much the plan rests on it. **Unlike a risk register that lists what might go wrong, this audit names what the plan already believes — and finds the two or three beliefs that would actually break it.** Each fragile assumption leaves the room with an owner and a date to check.

## Objectives

By the end of the activity, participants will have:

1. Surfaced the unwritten assumptions a plan quietly depends on — ten or fifteen of them.
2. Tagged each Evidence / To-verify / Fragile-if-false and ranked the fragile ones by load.
3. Owned the top two or three: who checks it, by when, and the fallback if it turns out false.

## When to use this activity

- A plan looks solid and everyone agrees too quickly — usually because the load-bearing assumptions are invisible.
- You're about to commit time or money and want to know what the plan secretly depends on.
- You have 3–8 people who built or will run the plan, and twenty minutes; it works on a call.

## The three tags

| Tag | Means | Turns into |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence | We've checked this — here's how we know. | Nothing; it's solid. Move on. |
| To-verify | We believe it but haven't confirmed it. | An owner and a date to check it. |
| Fragile-if-false | If this is wrong, the plan changes a lot. | The first thing you verify — and a Plan B. |

## Setup

**Clock:** 20 minutes total — frame 2, surface 6, tag & rank 5, assign 5, read back 2.

**Space:** a wall or shared board with the plan up top, room for a stack of assumption cards, and a short ranked list of the fragile ones.

**Materials per person:**

| Item | Source |
|---|---|
| A pad of blank cards | any index-card stock |
| A pen | bring your own |

**Materials for the room:** the three tag cards (Evidence / To-verify / Fragile-if-false) and a "who checks it, by when" card from `assumption-audit-prop-cards.pdf`.

**Grouping:** 3–8 people who built or will run the plan; one plan per sweep.

**Roles:** everyone surfaces and tags; you keep the first pass silent, force the ranking, and end on names and dates.

## How to run it

| Time | Phase | Facilitator does | Participants do |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | Frame | Put the plan up. Define an assumption: something the plan needs to be true that isn't written in it. | Read the plan; ask clarifying questions |
| 2–8 | Surface | Silent, then round-robin: every "the plan assumes…" on a card. Aim for 10–15. Don't judge yet. | Write assumptions silently, then read them aloud one per turn |
| 8–13 | Tag & rank | Each assumption gets one tag. Then rank all "Fragile-if-false" by how much the plan rests on it. | Tag each card; vote or argue the ranking of the fragile ones |
| 13–18 | Assign | For the top 2–3 fragile assumptions: who checks it, by when, and what's the fallback if it fails? | Name an owner and a date for each; sketch the fallback |
| 18–20 | Read back | Say the scariest assumption out loud. Confirm the owner and the date. That's the deliverable. | Hear the commitment read back; correct if wrong |

## Why silent-then-round-robin

Open discussion anchors on the first loud opinion. Silence lets each person write their own assumptions first; the round-robin then surfaces the odd one out — often the most load-bearing one nobody said aloud yet.

## The card

Use the faces from `assumption-audit-prop-cards.pdf`: three tag cards (Evidence / To-verify / Fragile-if-false), a "who checks it, by when" card, and a blank to author your own. Keep the tag definitions in view — the mislabels ("risk" instead of "assumption", everything "fragile") are what the cards prevent.

## Failure modes

1. **It becomes a risk list.** A risk is something that might happen; an assumption is something believed true right now. Rescue: keep asking "what do we assume here?" — the word *assume* forces the present tense.
2. **Everything is marked important.** Forcing a ranking of the fragile ones is the point — if nothing is top, the plan has no soft spot, which is almost never true. Rescue: cap the fragile list at three; make the room choose.
3. **No owner, no date.** An audit that doesn't name who checks what by when was theatre. Rescue: end on names and dates; refuse to close a row without both.
4. **The plan author defends every assumption.** They built the plan and hear each challenge as criticism. Rescue: assign them the scribe role — writing cards keeps their hands busy and their mouth less defensive.

## Variations

- **Remote:** shared doc or whiteboard — the silent pass in writing, the round-robin on mic.
- **One page only:** cap the surface at eight assumptions, then rank. Good when the team over-generates.
- **Pre-mortem hybrid:** for the top fragile assumption, jump to "it's false — now what?" before assigning an owner.
- **Recurring:** run it at each milestone on the same plan; the tag counts sliding toward Evidence is the health signal.

## Facilitation notes

- The strongest moment is the room realising a shared "obvious" was never checked.
- Park opinions as assumptions to verify rather than debating them live; it keeps the round fast.

## Put it on the wall

Print `assumption-audit-activity-poster.pdf` (A3) to put the run of show, the three tags and the "who checks it, by when" prompt on one wall while you facilitate.

## Props in this folder

- `assumption-audit-prop-cards.pdf` — poker-spec print sheet (63.5 × 88.9 mm, bleed and cut guides): three tag cards, a "who checks it, by when" card, a blank card, branded backs
- `assumption-audit-run-sheet.pdf` — the print edition: this run sheet + the debrief, bound as one A4 document with bookmarks (`-Letter.pdf` is US Letter)
- `assumption-audit-activity-poster.pdf` — the whole audit on one A3 wall sheet
- `assumption-audit-guide.md` · `-debrief.md` · `-start-here.md` — the facilitator guide, the debrief, the one-page start here
- `assumption-audit-license.md` — what you may do
- `SKILL.md` · `assumption-audit.zip` — the machine-readable manifest, and the whole folder in one download

## Agent version

Every file in this folder has a stable public URL — an AI agent can fetch the cards, the debrief and this run sheet with three curl commands (see `SKILL.md`). The paper version needs nothing but a wall, blank cards and a pen each.